- Inflation Measures Surge Above Federal Reserve Target
- Leading Indicators Rebound off of Recent Lows
- Stocks Attempt to Break Out
- Excessive Debt and Its Impact on Structural Growth
- The Challenge of a Secular Bear Market
- Stocks Begin Test of Congestion Resistance at Previous Cyclical Highs
- Housing Market Exhibits Early Signs of Bottoming Behavior
- Money Velocity Continues to Plunge
- Leading Indicator Revisions Reflect Tepid Recovery
- Stock Market Rally Attempts to Resume
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The Challenge of a Secular Bear Market
Most stock market participants fail to consider the big picture. They are either unaware of secular cycles or they discount their existence. Instead, they view cyclical bull and bear markets as the driving forces behind long-term price movements, basing their investment decisions on the perceived direction of the current cyclical trend. Unfortunately, the accurate evaluation of the investment meri...
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Annual Performance Review for 2011
Every January, we conduct a comprehensive review of our forecasting, investing and trading performance during the previous year. Accountability is very important to us and this performance review is another way for us to demonstrate our commitment to providing you with a highly reliable service. The audit process itself is admittedly tedious and time-consuming, but we believe it ultimately provide...
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Optimal Entry Points and Cycle Analysis
The brilliant investor Benjamin Graham, author of the revolutionary investment guide Security Analysis and mentor to Warren Buffett, once asserted that "the essence of investment management is the management of risk, not the management of returns." In other words, the key to success as an investor (and, we would assert, as a trader) over the long-term is maintaining focus on the things that can go...
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All Cyclical Bull Markets are Not Created Equal
Today, a prominent mainstream analyst proclaimed that the cyclical bull market from 2009 is only halfway through its four to five year run. His forecast is based on the historical average duration of cyclical uptrends. However, the prediction is fundamentally flawed because it completely ignores secular context. Cyclical bull markets that occur within secular bear markets behave very differently...
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Cycle Analysis Primer
The Basics Cycle Analysis (CA) is an excellent complement to standard Technical Analysis (TA) because its focus is time, whereas TA is concerned primarily with price. The idea behind CA is that markets have internal rhythms, and if you are able to accurately identify those cycle periods, you can then forecast when and where tops, bottoms, support and resistance are likely to develop. The first s...
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The Secular Relationship between Stocks and Gold
Regardless of whether you are an investor or a trader, understanding the big picture is imperative. The secular trend is the primary force behind price movements, dominating market behavior for up to decades at a time. If you do not understand secular trends, or simply choose to ignore them, the performance of your portfolio will invariably suffer over the long run. Even if you are short-term trad...
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Annual Performance Review for 2010
This year, and at the beginning of every year hereafter, we will conduct a comprehensive review of our forecasting, investing and trading performance during the previous year. Accountability is very important to us, and this performance review is simply another way for us to demonstrate our commitment to providing you with a highly reliable service. The audit process itself is admittedly tedious...
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The Gold Currency Index
What is the true value of gold? When someone asks you what gold is worth, what do you do? Well, if you live in the US, you quote them the current price of gold in US dollars, of course! Below is a daily chart of gold in US dollar terms during the summer of 2005: If gold were merely a commodity, focusing on its value in the relative terms of the local currency, or the in...
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What is Technical Analysis?
You may have noticed that we spend a great deal of time talking about things called money flow, momentum, and oscillators. All of these things are technical indicators and fall under the rather broad umbrella of the field known as technical analysis (TA). But what exactly is TA, and how does it work? Essentially, TA is an attempt to better understand and predict price behavior. Technical indicat...
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The Power of Compounding
Warren Buffett, Richard Russell and we (among others) know a little secret, and after reading this article you will too. Further, instead of making you wait until the dramatic conclusion of this piece, I'm going to just go ahead and blurt it out right here at the outset: Compounding is the only guaranteed way to create real wealth.* Yes, you heard me right. If you faithfully follow the compoun...
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